Published June 11, 2010

Yesterday I called it a “gloomy” statistic: that 43 percent of Massachusetts third graders don’t read at the third-grade level. It was the lead in the Globe article and the premise of a conversation on Radio Boston. To quote President George W. Bush, “Rarely is the question asked: Is our children learning?”

But is that statistic so gloomy? Consider this e-mail I got last night from Bill Dubay, who helped me report my piece yesterday:

One last remark about the 43 percent reading below the third grade level in the third grade.

I don’t think that should be cause for alarm unless that percentage is different in other schools. It stands to reason that since in the third grade the average grade level is the 3rd grade level, half the class might be reading below that level and half above it.

Reading statistics are very tricky and easy to use to alarm people. Many people are often shocked with the results of the adult literacy surveys and blame the schools. As I said on the phone, these figures have been very stable and do show real improvement over time, even in the inner cities. The teachers are doing a remarkable job, especially considering the cuts in school budgets.

There is a really good book for journalists who cover education:

Gerald W. Bracey, “Reading Educational Research: How to Avoid Getting Statistically Snookered.”

There are other good books on reading statistics and research on Amazon.

To be fair, I’ll pose Dubay’s point to the researchers of that study. I don’t think anyone disagrees we should be striving to improve third grade education. The study offers constructive ideas for doing so. But maybe we shouldn’t be so hard on ourselves?