Daily Archives: November 1, 2010

Suffolk Poll: Waltham Voters Pick Patrick

Published November 1, 2010

WBUR’s Morning Edition broadcast live today from Plymouth because it’s a bellwether — voters there picked Scott Brown in the special Senate election and the winning candidates for governor in 2006 and 2002.

Waltham is also seen as a bellwether, having mirrored Plymouth in the same three elections. In other words, voters there always pick winners. Suffolk University’s latest poll, out today, has 47 percent of likely Waltham voters choosing Gov. Deval Patrick, versus 40 percent for Republican challenger Charlie Baker.

Old Waltham Supermarket sign (Jmorgan via Wikimedia Commons)

Waltham voters always pick winners. (Jmorgan via Wikimedia Commons)

Patrick’s lead is safely outside the poll’s 5.5-percent margin at 95 percent confidence. (What? Here. The smaller the sample size — this one was 300 — the more likely the poll is erroneous.)

“Charlie Baker isn’t showing the kind of voter strength that Scott Brown showed back in January,” said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, in a statement. “If Baker wins statewide he’ll have to do it without Waltham and cities like Waltham, reversing historical trends.”

Independent Tim Cahill remains stuck in the single digits, at 9 percent. While a Cahill victory is virtually impossible, his support is loyal. Paleologos said Cahill “is on pace to break the all-time record for most votes cast for an independent candidate.”

Three percent of likely voters, a small number, said they are undecided. Only 1 percent indicated support for Green-Rainbow candidate Jill Stein.

The Suffolk survey makes a disclaimer: “Bellwethers are designed to predict outcomes, not margins.” In other words, the poll says a Patrick victory tomorrow is the most likely scenario, not that Patrick will win by seven percentage points.

If Patrick loses, Suffolk won’t be polling in Waltham again.

Campaign Check-Ins: Candidates Canvass, Poll Predicts

Published November 1, 2010

What’s news on the afternoon of this Election Eve:

  • Incumbent Gov. Deval Patrick is campaigning in central Mass. and the Merrimack Valley before a GOTV rally in Roslindale.
  • Republican Charlie Baker shook hands with commuters in Beverly this morning and travels to Braintree, Worcester, Lowell, Milton (Patrick’s home turf) and his own hometown of Swampscott.
  • Independent Tim Cahill is sticking close to hometown Quincy today. “I want people to know I’m still fighting, and I’m still in this race, so that they know they have a choice,” Cahill said.
  • Patrick maintains a 7-point lead in the latest Suffolk University poll. Independent Tim Cahill remains stuck in the single digits.
  • The Massachusetts secretary of state predicts wicked high turnout. William Galvin, who is also up for re-election, said he expects turnout to top more than 2.4 million voters, or 57 percent, rivaling the highest turnout for a non-presidential election since 1990.

If you missed it, we’ve put together a comprehensive index of WBUR reporting, analysis and photo galleries and voter resources on our Plymouth page. And stick with our ElectionWire blog for the best coverage anywhere.

Monday Morning: Plymouth

Published November 1, 2010

On this cold Monday morning, WBUR’s Morning Edition broadcast live from Plymouth, heart of the hotly contest 10th Congressional District. Republican Jeff Perry and Democrat Bill Keating are virtually tied. (Democratic Rep. Bill Delahunt is retiring.)

I spent the day Saturday in two towns in the 10th, Quincy and Weymouth, where I witnessed what some observers call the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats.

ElectionWire blogger Benjamin Swasey rounds up today’s reports and conversations from Plymouth:

  • David Boeri — who else? — went trick-or-treating in a Quincy neighborhood last night. He found signs of trouble for Democratic incumbents, invoking the Grim Reaper.
  • Fred Thys and Anthony Brooks have been trailing the two leading candidates for governor. They found Republican Charlie Baker and Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick conveying two distinct messages.
  • Deb Becker checked in with a report on the 4th Congressional District, where newcomer Republican Sean Bielat is stressing American values and Democratic Rep. Barney Frank is talking up his record.
  • Curt Nickisch has been following the quieter ballot question campaigns, as supporters and opponents of the three have taken to the streets in shoe-leather politics style.

Over the weekend, the gubernatorial candidates hit some 20 stops on a statewide bus tour to rally their base. I compiled a map of their campaign stops with photos from the trail.

We in the WBUR newsroom created an interactive feature that shows the candidates’ positions on jobs, health care, education, immigrant and the three ballot questions.

And WBUR photojournalists are continually updating a campaign trail photo gallery in the final hours of Election 2010.